Marketing reports

The forecast of passenger car production in Russia is based on the forecast of the market, prepared by AUTOSTAT specialists according to two possible scenarios: optimistic and pessimistic. The production forecast is also based on the similar scenarios, each of which takes into account indexes of economic progress of the country for the nearest several years, particularly oil prices, gross domestic product (GDP) dynamics, currency movement. At that we consider these scenarios as from 2014 as situation this year is quite clear.

The Russian market has negative dynamics under the economic stagnation, and many automotive manufacturers have to revise their production plans. Thus we expect that a little more than 1.92 million passenger cars will be produced in Russia in 2013. That is 2% less than last year, when the record of passenger car production was registered in our country (1.96 million vehicles).

The largest production volume belongs to AVTOVAZ, which will remain the leader for the period under review regardless of the possible scenarios. Manufacturing capabilities, replacement of the model lineup as well as close collaboration with Renault-Nissan alliance will enable the domestic manufacturer to generate about a quarter of the passenger car production in the future. Meanwhile foreign carmakers continue to increase their production in Russia; this year their total share will have already exceeded 70%. The Kaliningrad plant Avtotor, which had been the leader in foreign vehicle production in our country for the previous years, is competing with Hyundai Motor Manufacturing Rus plant in St. Petersburg this year, due to production decline. During the next few years this competition will intensify even more as enterprises operating under industrial assembly regime will expand their production. The largest increase can be expected from Volkswagen, General Motors as well as Sollers and AVTOVAZ, which have new industrial assembly agreements with Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, providing for higher localization level (60%) and increase in production up to 300,000 - 350,000 vehicles in the next few years.

Marketing report "Forecast of passenger car production in Russia till 2020" was prepared with an office research method. The major information sources are data obtained from the market players directly and AUTOSTAT own databases. All statistic data presented in the report is clearly organized, compiled in tables and illustrated with graphs and diagrams.