Forecast of car market of Russia for the first six months of 2009

According to forecast estimation of the analytic agency �AUTOSTAT� for the first six months of 2009, there were realized nearly 730 thsd of new passenger cars. This is by 48, 6% less than for the first six months of 2008 (1, 42 mln units). The analysts estimate the sum capacity of market on totals of the first six months (in money terms) in 13, 5 bln USD, which is by 58, 6% less than the same index of the last year (32, 6 bln USD).
As the director of the agency �AUTOSTAT� Sergej Tselikov reported, the significant fall of capacity of market in money terms is caused by significant fall of sales (- 48, 6%) and by fall of average price of cars in USD by 19, 2% - from 22, 9 thsd USD to 18 , 5 thsd USD.
The analysts note that the sale of Russian models and foreign cars during the first six months were falling by the same rate. The direct import was decreasing faster (-70%) than the assembly of foreign cars inside the country (-52%). Reduction of inventory at sites of official dealers (stocks) during this period is estimated by analysts in 110 � 120 thsd cars. They say that this factor will not cause the further pressure onto market.
Demand and offer finds its balance, said Sergej Tselikov. According to his opinion, in the third quarter of 2009 the sale of new cars may decrease and become lower than now, the start of reconstruction of market should be expected not earlier than spring 2010. The detailed forecast will be represented in the sixth edition of the monthly overview of the automotive market of Russia.