Experts predict the growth of car loans in Russia

During the business forum "FinAuto - 2023. Market Financial Instruments", which was held on April 10 in Moscow, Frank RG representative Stanislav Sukhov recalled that in 2022 car loans proved to be the most affected segment of retail lending. In 2023, according to Frank RG's baseline forecast, car loans in Russia will grow by 41% in monetary terms, and by 24% in terms of the number of car loans issued. The company bases this baseline forecast on the following factors: the economy is adapting to the new reality, Central Bank is gradually easing its policy, the production of domestic cars is reaching the planned level, new brands are entering the market, and Chinese brands are gradually expanding their presence, preferential car loan programs are being resumed. In this case, it is realistic to reach the figure of 715,000 car loans issued per year (for comparison, there were 579,000 in 2022).

However, the company also has shock and soft forecast options. The executive director of analytical agency "AUTOSTAT" Sergey Udalov said that the share of car loans in sales of new cars in the first quarter of 2023 already reached 45.7% (a year ago it was 36%). As for used cars, the share of credit cars reached 7.2% (a year ago - 5.3%). This is in general for cars with high mileage, however, for "younger" cars (under the age of 10 years), the share of credits is much higher - 21.9% (against 14.9% a year ago).

The expert noted that, judging by the structure of credit cars, banks are working actively with older cars today and are not afraid to take them as collateral. From other trends: the average age of a borrower for loans for new cars is 43 years, for used cars - about 40 years. The theme of the portrait of the borrower at the forum was continued by Vladimir Shikin, NBKI Deputy Director of Marketing, who noted that the car loan borrower in Russia today is "getting younger". The crisis years showed that young borrowers quickly restored their client bases. But there is another side of the issue: the average check for all borrowers has grown, and borrowers of the older age category have increased the most. Therefore, young borrowers look promising for banks from the point of view of developing their client base, and older borrowers - from the point of view of the portfolio.