Experts told what awaits the Russian car market in 2023

In the outgoing year, sales of new cars in Russia will show a record drop (almost 2.5 times), by reaching a historic low of 625,000-630,000 cars. Experts interviewed by the agency "AUTOSTAT" informed what factors will determine the market dynamics in the coming 2023. According to the deputy head of the analytics department of the agency "AUTOSTAT" Viktor Pushkarev, the state of the car market will be determined, first of all, by the state of the Russian economy, which will be in a mode of serious structural transformation the next year, and in the face of unprecedented sanctions. The draft budget of the Russian Federation for 2023 already reflects the predicted negative consequences of the new economic crisis: negative GDP dynamics, a drop in exports, a decrease in real incomes of the population, etc. Obviously, the car market, as an element of the economy, will adapt to new conditions along with it. In 2023, we can hardly expect a significant growth in the market of new passenger cars. The basic forecast of the agency "AUTOSTAT" is focused on the market volume of about 630 - 640 thousand cars.

"Next year's sales depend not so much on economic as on political factors. Even though we will only begin to feel the real effect of the imposed sanctions the next year, there is nowhere for sales to fall much. So, if there are no additional shocks like the second wave of mobilization, the expansion of martial law areas or the escalation of response levels in the regions of Russia, then I would count on the sale of about 700 thousand cars in 2023. If the population has to deal with the mentioned factors, then the market will collapse to 450-500 thousand units," comments Sergey Novoselsky, Marketing and IT Director of the Petrovsky Group of Companies. Aleksey Podshchekoldin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of BN-Motors, also predicts that about 700,000 new cars will be sold in Russia the next year.

At the same time, LADA is expected to increase its sales to 350 thousand cars (this is the result of 2021), UAZ and GAZ will also remain at the level of 2021 (30 thousand and 50 thousand units, respectively). Chinese brands will grow by about 50% to 170,000 cars (including through the launch of new brands), and no more than 100,000-150,000 cars will be imported through parallel imports.