The agency «AUTOSTAT» announced the forecast of the car market for 2023

The basic forecast of the analytical agency "AUTOSTAT" is focused on the market volume of about 630 - 640 thousand cars in 2023. As the deputy head of the analytics department of the agency "AUTOSTAT" Viktor Pushkarev notes, it is hardly worth expecting a significant growth in the market of new passenger cars in the coming year. “It is already clear that the key players in the car market in 2023 will be Russian AvtoVAZ and Chinese automakers, primarily those that already have strong positions: Haval, Chery, Geely and their sister brands.

According to our basic forecast scenario for 2023, LADA brand has a chance to occupy 48-50% of the market, and the total share of all Chinese brands may exceed 25%. It is still problematic to estimate and predict the share of parallel imports, as it is difficult to single out channels and methods for delivering cars from different countries, but it is unlikely to exceed 10% in the future. The real reasons for entering the market, in my opinion, are new players from China, as this is the only friendly country that has a powerful auto industry with modern innovative technologies. However, these new players will have to face serious competition from their already effective compatriots,” Viktor Pushkarev explains.

In his opinion, it makes no sense to estimate the volume of pent-up demand, precisely because the market is being restructured. The return to the market of foreign automakers that have stopped their activities will definitely not happen in the new year. Demand, deferred due to a sharp rise in prices, can no longer be taken into account, as prices have reached new levels and will not return to the previous ones. Demand for specific and scarce cars began to be met through parallel imports. In a word, buyers will now have to choose from what the newly emerging market offers, and not wait for better times.