AUTOSTAT forecast: dynamics of oil prices and exchange rates does not inspire optimism

Despite the fact that the Russian market of new cars in September showed the growth (+ 2% versus August 2020 and + 8% versus September 2019), two macroeconomic factors - the price of oil and the exchange rate, which directly affect the market, have been demonstrating negative trend.

When preparing the report “Forecast of the Russian market of new passenger cars for 2020 (monthly monitoring)”, the experts of the AUTOSTAT agency came to the conclusion that there is no reason to hope for a quick recovery of the economy and the car market, since the price of oil, as a key factor, has not "gain" noticeable dynamics. “If the current dynamics of the Brent oil price continues, then by the end of the year its average annual price will not exceed $ 43 per barrel,” Viktor Pushkarev, deputy head of the analytical department of the AUTOSTAT agency, comments on the situation. "For comparison, in 2019 the price was $ 64.2."

As for another key factor affecting the market, at the end of September, the average monthly exchange rates were at the level of 75.8 rubles per US dollar and 89.3 rubles per Euro. If this level persists during October-December, then the average annual indicators of these currencies will be at least 72 rubles / dollar and 82 rubles / euro, i.e. will noticeably surpass last year's values - 64.7 rubles / dollar and 72.5 rubles / euro. Against this background, unambiguous skepticism is caused by official forecasts of the annual inflation rate in 2020 not exceeding 3.8%.