AUTOSTAT forecast: "peak" of passenger car sales was passed in July. What's next?

In August of this year, the volume of new passenger car market in Russia reached about 130 thousand units, which is lower by 8% than the result of August 2019. At the same time, in compare with the results of July, the drop in sales was even stronger - almost 17%. During the preparation of the new report “Forecast of the Russian market of new passenger cars for 2020 (monthly monitoring)”, the experts of the analytical agency “AUTOSTAT” identified two main factors that could have the most significant impact on the dynamics of this decline.

For example, the continuing rise in prices for new cars, with the help of which automakers are trying to compensate for the rise in the exchange rate, may accelerate the market decline. In August, the growth of average monthly exchange rates was as follows: for the dollar - 3.5%, for the euro - 7.2%, and since the beginning of 2020, the dynamics reached 19.4% and 27.1%, respectively.

According to analysts, most likely, the average annual value of the dollar exchange rate should not be lower than 73-74 rubles, higher by 12-14% than the last year's level. Thus, it can be assumed that by the end of 2020, the weighted average price of a car will grow by 12-13% relatively to the price of 2019. On the other hand, the shortage of the most demanded models and modifications of cars both in the warehouses of distributors and in production plans can slow down the decline in sales. Moreover, for some brands, such a deficit can be protracted and last until the end of the year.