Forecast of the passenger car market. Is growth possible?

Experts of the analytical agency AUTOSTAT decided to consider possible scenarios for the development of events in the market of new passenger cars in 2021 - depending on oil prices, since there is a high correlation between the average annual cost of a barrel of oil and statistics of annual sales of new cars.

Note that in 2012, when oil quotes were at more than 110 USD, the volume of car sales was the maximum - 2.8 million units. As oil prices fell, sales volumes in the car market also fell. In 2016, oil quotations fell by more than a half - to USD 45 per a barrel. Experts noted a similar decrease in the car market - up to 1.3 million units. Subsequently, any increase and decrease in the average annual oil price to one degree or another was reflected in the situation with Russian car sales. 2020 was no exception, even with such a factor as the coronavirus pandemic. And although the first half of the year, due to such force majeure circumstances, went into a peak, the second was able to compensate significantly for the losses in the car market.

As for the forecasts for 2021, the mathematical calculations of the AUTOSTAT agency experts show that if the average price of a barrel of Brent crude oil in 2021 is at the level of 50 USD, then the market of new passenger cars may fall by 11.7% (to 1.31 million units). In the case of an average annual price of 55 USD, the car market will decrease less - only by 5.5% (to 1.4 million units). In the most positive scenario - with an increase in oil prices up to 60 USD - the market may even grow by 4% (up to 1.55 million units). It should be noted that at the end of 4 months of 2021, the average price of Brent oil was about 62 USD, which creates certain preconditions for a positive forecast.