According to the analytic agency "AUTOSTAT", in February of 2017 the volume of the market of passenger cars with a run in Russia was almost 360 thousand units, which is less by 2.9% than a year ago.
Director of AA AUTOSTAT agency, Sergey Tselikov, shares his impressions about the conference.
Three days I participated in conference “Autoretail in Russia” (29-31st of October), which was held by institute of Adam Smith in Moscow. I was not for the first time in such event, so there is something to compare. Memories are still alive and I will try to reflect on the most important moments.
The first one is car market. Almost everyone agreed that the Russian car market has reached the level, from which is almost impossible to continue to grow. This year (2012) we will see the pre-crisis level – 2,7-2,8 million passenger cars or 2,9-3,0 with the commercial market. The optimistic forecast for 2013 is the growth by 5-10%, the pessimistic one is the market stagnation or it will even fall. At the present time the most pessimistic variant is the falling by 20% to the level of 2,4 million units. At the same time the competition between car producers, brands, car holdings and even separate dealers will be seriously intensified. As the result – the decreasing of profitability, the decreasing of profit (sometimes even loses), the growing of importance of work efficiency. In the long-term perspective – “the main mass” of car community believe in bright future of Russian car market and car retail. The level of 3,5-4,0 million cars per a year is our goal for 5- 7 years ahead. But we will go to this goal not right now but in a certain temporary pause. Well, as they say, wait and see.
The second one is marketing. The whole day, which had the name “focus-day”, was devoted to effective organization of marketing and sales. I was glad that it is more and more time and efforts are paid to car marketing. Only one fact disappointed me. After the small interviews and communication with colleagues I found out that the part of marketing budget, which is spent for statistics, analytics and marketing research, is only 1% in average of total marketing budget of dealer. The rest 99% are spent for different type of advertising, events, purchase of advertise “waste paper” (usually for garbage can) and etc. I think that 1% is not enough, though, budgets could be different. In my humble opinion the best speech belonged to Aleksey Lazarev from Atlant-M Bazheva. He said and showed presentation on his IPad. It was cool! It moved, changed, almost “danced and played”, not as our “dead presentations” that were prepared by PowerPoint. In addition Aleksey had a lot of concrete examples, clear real figures from life. So, Aleksey is who to take an example.
The third one is the dealer margin. We talked about it several times during three days. Of course, everybody wants to earn money and to earn easily. It is so in the good old joke. “Where did you get money, what do you do? Nothing special, I buy for two Roubles and sell it for four ones. So, I live for these two percents. So, the diapason of margin here was also from 0 to 10. Someone said that they work almost in minus, on distributor bonus, which could be lost at any moment. And they will have only losses in the fourth quarter. But someone bet chest and said that gave 9,8% of margin to dealers. So, go and see what’s what – who is poor and who is reach. But I suppose that hardly anyone of them came in the conference by metro.
The fourth one is other moments. I saw and heard the new head of Car Department of Ministry of industry and trade of RF, Timur Mikai, at first time. It is a pity that Aleksey Rachmanov received the high post and he doesn’t meet car conferences any more. It is only few of charismatic personalities in our government. Information on the same topic – soon our relevant department will be renamed to department of transport engineering. Apparently, issues of car industry will be “pushed” even further. It’s a shame. I could also mention other unhappy future moments that have general economic character: the easy accounting will be liquidated in 2013-2014. It is a pity, it was easy to work, less of inspections, more of air for entrepreneurs. Evidently, our government doesn’t need small enterprises anymore. Then it will be introduced a prohibition for the payment by “cash” more than 600 thousand Roubles. I’m on for it but it could influence on car market.
P.S. At the end I would like to mention those speakers (except Aleksey Lazarev), speeches of whom I listened with the special interest, by focusing some thoughts and ideas. They are Konstantin Gordienko (Gorod Avto), Oskar Achmedov (Independence), Vladimir Popov (Favourite-Motors), Vladimir Mozhenkov (AudiCentreTaganka), Aleksandr Sparre (AvtoSpetsCentre), Vladimir Soloviev (Exect), Aleksey Leschenko (Modus) and Steve Chernysh (ADTC). It’s a pity that I missed the presentation of Tatyana Lukovetskaya (Rolf), I think that she was “on top”, as always.