Data were presented by 55 holdings.
“Instruments of analysis and forecasts of car markets”
June 22nd, 2012
The seminar-conference “Instruments for analysis and forecasts of car markets”, which was organized by analytic agency AUTOSTAT and company «BDW-automotive» (IHS Group), was held in Moscow on June 20th. More than 70 specialists of auto business participated in it – managers of marketing and sales from distributors of cars, from dealer companies, banks and insurance companies.
There were presented instruments of analysis for participants of the seminar: system of analysis of regional data “SARA” (analysis of data by new cars registrations, re-registrations, parc, planning and forecasting of sales networks and others) and system of forecasting of car market “ForCar”, which permit users to forecast the development of car market by segments and also to plan the launch of new models. Subscribers of “SARA” system and “ForCar” are more than 10 thousand of clients in 60 countries of the world.
Besides, reviews of car markets of Russia and Europe, tendencies of its development were also presented in this seminar.
Russia is in the TOP-10 of leaders
Russia is stably in the TOP-10 of world leaders of all type car sales. As the director of analytic agency AUTOSTAT, Sergey Tselikov, said, in 2008 Russia climbed up on the fifth place by car sales volume in the world. But Russian car market fell down twice because of world finance crisis and it lost five places at once in 2009. In spite of demand recovery, Russia remained on the 10th place also in 2010. The point is that markets of Brazil and India continued the intensive growth during crisis and they outstripped our country. By the results of 2011 Russian car market became the seventh one by size in the world and more likely it will occupy this place for the nearest future. “At least our country is unlikely surpass Brazil and India as the population of these countries exceeds the number of citizens of Russia and it means that the potential of those markets is higher. And Germany, which remains the biggest car market of Europe, loses its positions in the world championship – this country fell down to the sixth place by the results of 2012 and it let go ahead India”, - said Sergey Tselikov.
Meanwhile, Russia surpasses Brazil, India and China by car ownership level. At the present time we have 293 vehicles per 1000 citizens. By the words of Sergey Tselikov, the provision of population with cars in the world is 150 vehicles in average. So, Russia exceeds this indicator twice but it is quite far from developed counties, where more than 500 cars per 1000 citizens. The leader of car ownership level is USA with indicator of 789 cars per 1000 citizens. “By the way, the level of 300 vehicles per 1000 citizens, which should be reached soon by Russia, was in America in 1950”, - remarked Sergey Tselikov.
Catch up and outstrip Germany
Russia will be able to outstrip Germany by sales of passenger cars in 2014 and it will become the biggest car market of Europe. As the managing director of BDW Automotive (IHS Group), Detlef Borshayd, said, German car market will have a stabilization on the level of 3,2 million cars per a year, when sales of cars in Russia continue to grow.
So, according to forecast of BDW Automotive, German car market will grow by 8% to 3 million 200 thousand vehicles this year and Russian one – by 15% to 2 million 790 thousand vehicles. It will be sold 3 million 210 thousand cars in Germany the next year and it will be sold in Russia 3 million 100 thousand units. And in 2014 Russian car market will be able to outstrip German one: 3 million 420 thousand cars against 3 million 200 thousand cars. Then the gap between Russia and Germany will increase and it will be 4,1 million against 3 million cars by 2020, forecasted BDW Automotive.
By the words of Detlef Borshayd, at the present time the population of Germany becomes older, the number of working people decreases, so rates of parc renovation decreases. “So, at the present time a car is not an object of status for young people of Germany and there is no sense of car owning in big cities”, - said the managing director of BDW Automotive. – “More of citizens of Germany change their cars to bicycles and public transport. Besides, there is a system “carsharing” for car leasing in big cities, so it is possible to drive in any place of city”. Among reasons of demand for cars falling in Germany Detlef Borshayd also remarked the slow growth of population incomes. At the same time prices for modern cars grow and cars become more technologic, safety and ecological that lead to the prolongation of period of car owning. “Recently a competition in the German market, where national brands dominated traditionally, became higher”, - added Detlef Borshayd. – “More and more Asian products come to the market, including Chinese producers that offer competitive products at lower prices”.
Concerning perspectives of Russian car market, by the words of Sergey Tselikov, its development will depend on the speed of average class growth. “For example, the average class is much higher in Germany, where 82 million people, than in the country with a population of 143 million people, so volumes of German car market exceed car sales in Russia”, - he said. On opinion of Sergey Tselikov, potential of Russian car market is not more than 3,6 million of passenger cars per a year.
Hits of sales
Russian car market, growth rate of which decreases gradually for the recent time, comes back to habitual demand seasonality. As the executive director of analytic agency AUTOSTAT, Sergey Udalov, said, regional markets develop more intensive, many of them surpassed already indicators of 2008 but Moscow and Moscow region and also St. Petersburg did not reach even the pre-crisis level.
As the director of analytic agency AUTOSTAT, Sergey Tselikov, added, the deferred demand, which was formed during the crisis years, was satisfied almost completely at the present time. Besides, if we take into account the fact that the average term of car owning is about 3 years then people should change cars that were bought in 2009, when the market fall down twice. At the same time, Sergey Tselikov supposes that the main sales driver of market without the stimulating programs is car lending, the share of which in cars sales could increase to 50%. By the words of expert, the development of Russian car market also promotes the launch of “national” foreign cars.
Meanwhile, the brand structure of market, especially in regions, almost doesn’t change this year, said Sergey Udalov. “Today only hit of sales will be able to change the balance of power”, - he remarked. – “For example, brand Kia was able to become the leader among foreign cars by new cars registrations in Russia for five months of 2012 due to the new Rio”. And Russian brand Lada continues to loose the market share – from 24% for 2011 to 18,4% in January-May of this year. By the words of Sergey Udalov, AvtoVAZ also has the sales hit – new low cost sedan Lada Granta gets first places in sales ratings in many regions of Russia. “For example, Granta became the best buy models by the results of five months in Samara region”, - said the executive director of AUTOSTAT agency.