Car market may drop to 100-110 thousand per month

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Vice President of ROAD, Oleg Moseev, does not exclude the fall of the car market to 100-110 thousand cars per a month, as well as the fact that the dealership networks in 2016 will lose 200 more dealers.

First fact, according to Mr. Moseev, could happen in the absence of support from the state: the next year program of state car market still was not budgeted. Ministry of Industry and Trade, probably, is based on data of professionals of Boston Consulting Group, who predicted the 10-th% increase in car market in 2016. Anyway, at the conference "RosAvtodiler" the representatives of the Ministry stated that the government will look at the situation in the first quarter of the year - and, accordingly its results, it will make certain conclusions.

With regard to the further reduction of the dealer network, according to Mr. Moseev, currently in the country – there is an excessive number of dealerships: more than 4 thousand dealers, who have to sell 4 million vehicles, eventually they are selling 1.5 million. At the same time, many of them have lack of the service download - simply because there is no service market capacity in some cities or extra service capacity was made. "Potentially, it looks that almost half of the dealers should disappear”, - said Mr. Moseev. – “However, in my opinion, the real problems are at 10 % of dealers. It is clear that some of them will be absorbed by other players. So, the clear outflow of dealerships in 2016 will be approximately at the level of this year (around 200) – this is a figure, on which we should be guided accordingly ... "

However, the vice-president ROAD supposes that it is not all so bad. The Russian auto dealers have small reserves, while the car market of the country as a whole – has absolutely terrific figure of "pent-up demand" (assessment of ROAD - in 2016 this figure will be closer to 1.5 million units), which will "shot” any way (the experience of crisis of 2009). 

19 november 2015